The System Finds Shelter While Tech Splinters

Bearish oil, bullish gold, cautious on stocks

Oil has suffered two very large drops and the news offers little reason to expect a quick recovery. Gold looks more appealing because investors are seeking shelter, while the major stock indexes remain too unstable for a strong directional call.

Defensive on risk assets, favors gold

Bitcoin is struggling to hold important ground, and both oil and stocks remain weak over the recent stretch. Gold has held up better than those assets, while lower Treasury yields suggest investors are preparing for slower growth or seeking safety.

Bullish equities despite rough recent trading

The longer-term trend still points higher for the major stock indexes and Bitcoin, even after their recent declines. But the latest trading has been rough enough that these forecasts come with real timing risk, especially for investors looking for a near-term move.

Favors Microsoft and Amazon, avoids Google

Microsoft and Amazon have held up far better than the broader market, making them the clearest leaders in this group. Google has fallen sharply and appears to have its own selling pressure, while Meta also lacks a convincing reason for a near-term rebound.

Strongly bearish on weak software names

ServiceNow and Snowflake are the clearest trouble spots, with steep declines and concerns about expensive prices or slowing business momentum. Workday has been more resilient and remains the preferred software name, while Salesforce and Adobe do not have enough fresh news to justify a big bet.

Bearish semiconductor group after sharp selloff

The semiconductor group has been hit by a broad retreat from artificial-intelligence and chip spending, with AMD suffering the most. Nvidia, Broadcom, TSMC, and Qualcomm have all fallen heavily, and there is not yet enough evidence that the selling has run its course.

Cuts risk, prefers gold over volatile assets

The recent evidence is too conflicted to justify broad exposure to stocks or Bitcoin, and several assets are moving violently from day to day. Gold offers better diversification, while oil, the major indexes, and the 10-year Treasury yield should be kept to modest or zero positions.