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Friday, September 25, 2026

Rising Yields Split Bulls From Bears

After a mixed four-for-eight scorecard, the system backs rising yields and selective growth while confronting a fresh rate shock.

Per-agent P&L (cumulative)

Each line is one agent. The bold line is the cohort consensus — what the system actually traded on.

Per-agent cumulative P&L through 2026-09-25

The verdict

The system landed long Bitcoin, the S&P 500, 10-year yields, AMD, Qualcomm, Meta, Apple, ServiceNow, and Snowflake, while shorting oil, Alphabet, Amazon, and Adobe; gold, the Dow, and several other names stay neutral. The unifying view is selective strength despite higher rates, though the S&P call is only narrowly bullish and the recent scorecard was mixed at four correct calls out of eight.

Today's calls

Here is what the system is putting weight on for the next five trading days:

AssetDirectionConfidencePosition size
BitcoinBULLISH73%7%
OilBEARISH100%9%
GoldNEUTRAL75%0%
DOWNEUTRAL48%0%
SP500BULLISH49%14%
10Y_YieldBULLISH100%11%
NVDABULLISH61%5%
AVGONEUTRAL53%0%
AMDBULLISH100%6%
TSMNEUTRAL100%0%
QCOMBULLISH100%6%
MSFTNEUTRAL59%0%
GOOGLBEARISH59%5%
AMZNBEARISH58%8%
METABULLISH59%9%
AAPLBULLISH100%4%
CRMNEUTRAL56%0%
ADBEBEARISH100%6%
NOWBULLISH100%6%
WDAYNEUTRAL100%0%
SNOWBULLISH100%5%

What each agent is seeing

Technical Analyst

Bullish stocks, Bitcoin, gold, and yields

The recent price trend points higher for Bitcoin, the S&P 500, gold, and 10-year yields, while oil looks persistently weak. The analyst is tempering those calls where the longer trend or weekly picture is less convincing.

Macro Analyst

Bullish Bitcoin, stocks, and rising yields

Bitcoin and equities are holding up better than expected even as borrowing costs rise, which looks like cautious risk-taking rather than a full retreat. But the jump in 10-year yields is a major fault line, weighing on gold and potentially limiting further gains in stocks.

Sentiment Analyst

Bearish oil and equities, bullish yields

The headlines are warning that the surge in Treasury yields is becoming a real threat to stocks, while oil keeps falling amid weaker energy sentiment and possible easing of geopolitical tensions. This analyst is the clear skeptic on the S&P 500 and Dow, despite their recent attempts to recover.

Mega-Cap Analyst

Favoring META and AAPL over GOOGL, AMZN

The big technology names are moving in very different directions: Meta is a standout leader and Apple has held its gains, while Alphabet and Amazon are lagging. The view is to follow that relative strength rather than assume every large technology company will benefit equally.

Chips Analyst

Bullish AMD and QCOM, cautious on AVGO

AMD is leading the chip group by a wide margin, and Qualcomm has a fresh boost from its agreement to supply Amazon with custom AI chips. Nvidia is participating but not leading, while Broadcom and TSM lack enough independent strength for a bullish call.

SaaS Analyst

Bullish NOW and SNOW, bearish ADBE

Among software companies, ServiceNow and Snowflake are showing enough resilience to support modest upside calls, while Workday and Salesforce lack a clear edge. Adobe is the outlier on the downside, hurt by weak recent performance and concern that investor expectations have become too demanding.

Risk Manager

Reducing risk amid rising yields

The strongest shared signals are falling oil and rising 10-year yields, but the risk review warns that both moves could be volatile. It also trims enthusiasm for stocks and Bitcoin because higher yields can pressure valuations and make several positions move together.

Where they disagreed

The central fight is over the S&P 500: technical and macro analysts see a measured rebound, while sentiment sees the yield surge as a reason to step back, and risk management settles on caution. The same split appears in technology, with AMD, Meta, and Qualcomm favored even as Alphabet, Amazon, and Adobe are marked for declines.

How recent calls played out

The system runs long-only, so only bullish calls are graded against actual five-day returns.

DateAssetCallActualResult
2026-09-20BitcoinBULLISH3.67%Win
2026-09-20OilNEUTRAL-8.13%Miss
2026-09-20GoldBULLISH-2.43%Miss
2026-09-20SP500NEUTRAL1.24%Win
2026-09-2010Y_YieldBULLISH3.98%Win
2026-09-20MSFTBULLISH0.55%Win
2026-09-20GOOGLBULLISH-2.05%Miss
2026-09-20METANEUTRAL15.88%Miss
2026-09-20AAPLBULLISH0.43%Win
2026-09-20NVDABULLISH0.74%Win