Rising Yields Split the Market, Oil Keeps Climbing

Bullish oil and yields, bearish broad stocks

The clearest message is that borrowing costs are still rising, with the 10-year yield approaching 5%. That pressure is weighing on the Dow and S&P 500, while oil's strong climb suggests supply worries and renewed inflation risk.

Bullish stocks despite recent market weakness

The chart-based models see room for a rebound in the Dow and S&P 500, even though both have recently slipped. They also favor gold and Bitcoin, but the recent weakness in those assets makes the signals less comfortable than they first appear.

Favor technology leaders, avoid Amazon

Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Apple are showing better relative strength than the wider market, with company-specific stories helping them hold up. Amazon is the exception: it has lagged its peers and keeps failing to join the broader technology rebound.

Defensive on stocks, bullish oil and yields

Investors appear cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, and recent declines in the Dow and S&P 500 reinforce that defensive mood. Oil is benefiting from fresh supply-risk concerns, while rising yields are becoming the dominant worry across markets.

Favor selective semiconductor strength

The chip group is not moving as one: Qualcomm, TSM, and AMD are holding up better, while Broadcom is a clear laggard. Qualcomm stands out because its new Amazon AI-chip agreement gives its rally a company-specific reason, rather than just a broad technology bounce.

Bullish Salesforce and ServiceNow, wary Adobe

Salesforce and ServiceNow have attracted buyers despite the pressure from higher interest rates, helped by strong recent rebounds. Adobe looks more vulnerable because investors are demanding more from its artificial-intelligence story and recent sentiment has turned less supportive.