Commodities Surge as Equities Lose Their Edge

Bullish commodities, bearish broad equities

Bitcoin, oil, and gold are all showing strong recent gains, suggesting investors are favoring alternatives and inflation protection. At the same time, higher interest rates and rising oil costs are weighing on the Dow and S&P 500.

Bullish commodities, cautious on stocks

Gold and Bitcoin have held the strongest upward trends, while oil is moving higher more steadily. The major stock indexes are choppy, with recent weakness offsetting only modest improvement over the longer recent stretch.

Keep winners, reduce reversal risk

The strongest recent advances also carry the greatest risk of a pullback, especially Bitcoin and gold. I support the bullish calls, but with measured exposure rather than assuming these rallies can continue at the same speed.

Favor Microsoft, fade Amazon and Meta

Microsoft remains the standout among the large technology companies despite its latest retreat. Amazon has been falling for several sessions, while Meta remains a clear laggard after a sharp selloff, so the group is splitting rather than moving together.

Favor Nvidia and TSM, avoid Broadcom

Nvidia and TSM are holding up better than the semiconductor group, supporting the view that artificial-intelligence spending remains a source of strength. Broadcom and AMD have lagged badly, although AMD's positive headlines keep the debate unusually close.

Bullish software leaders despite high rates

Salesforce, ServiceNow, Workday, and Adobe have delivered powerful recent gains even as higher interest rates normally pressure software companies. Their company-specific strength is outweighing that broader headwind, though Workday's especially large jump makes a pause more likely.

Bullish gold, Bitcoin, and selected technology

News coverage supports gold and Bitcoin, with defensive and inflation concerns helping both markets. Technology coverage is broadly constructive for Nvidia, Salesforce, and Adobe, but many headlines around individual companies are thin or unfocused, so the signals deserve restraint.