Stocks Keep Climbing While Commodities Tell Another Story

Bullish stocks and gold, bearish oil

Stocks remain in a strong short-term climb, and their latest dip looks small compared with the gains that came before it. Gold is rising alongside equities while oil keeps sliding, suggesting investors want growth but are also seeking protection from inflation or uncertainty.

Strongly bullish equities, cautious on yields

The market's recent direction points higher, especially for the Dow and S&P 500, and neither looks unusually overheated compared with its recent range. Oil remains under pressure, while the outlook for ten-year borrowing costs is mixed enough that I would not take a side.

Bullish gold, doubtful stocks and crypto

The news flow is much less encouraging than the stock charts, with technology headlines and market risks failing to offer a clear boost. Gold looks stronger because investors are seeking shelter, while Bitcoin's partial recovery and negative crypto coverage leave me unconvinced.

Favor Microsoft, Amazon, Google; avoid Apple

Microsoft is the standout performer, rising far faster than the broader market, while Amazon and Google are also holding up well. Apple and Meta have lagged badly, so I see a sharp divide inside the biggest technology names rather than a uniformly healthy group.

Bullish established software leaders

Salesforce, ServiceNow, Workday, and Adobe are all participating in a broad software advance, not just a one-company bounce. Snowflake's move is less convincing because it is behaving differently from its software peers, so I would rather follow the established leaders.

Bullish AI leaders, bearish Qualcomm

Nvidia and Broadcom are leading a powerful artificial-intelligence infrastructure trade, even as the wider chip sector has struggled. AMD and TSM are merely keeping pace, while Qualcomm stands out as a persistent laggard and appears to face problems beyond ordinary sector weakness.

Trim duplicated equity risk, limit oil exposure

The stock case is strong, but the Dow and S&P 500 often move together, so holding large positions in both would repeat the same bet. I kept gold at a meaningful size, limited the oil position because its swings are unusually violent, and left Bitcoin untouched because the analysts disagree.