Hawkish Fed Crushes Gold, Oil, and Crypto Alike

Bearish everything except rising rates

The Federal Reserve is the only story that matters right now. Gold is supposed to rise when interest rates rise — it's not doing that, which tells me something has fundamentally changed. Prominent voices like Gundlach are openly comparing this to the 1970s inflation era, and I take that seriously as a warning sign for risk assets across the board.

Strongly bearish rates, split on equities

Rising bond yields are the clearest trend I can find — the price history, the models, and the headlines all point the same direction. The one place I break from the group is stocks: the S&P 500 has actually held up remarkably well through all this commodity carnage, and my models are still leaning bullish there. But I got outvoted.

Bearish commodities and crypto, cautious on stocks

Oil has lost nearly 20% in a month because of the US-Iran peace deal, and there's no sign the selling is done. Bitcoin is quietly drifting lower with no obvious floor in sight. Stocks are shrugging all of this off for now, but I'm not convinced that lasts if the Fed keeps tightening the screws.

Agrees on direction, trims size everywhere

I'm on board with the bearish reads on gold, oil, and bitcoin — but I'm cutting position sizes across the board. Oil in particular has been falling so fast that a violent snap-back rally is a real danger, and our track record on bearish oil calls has not been good. We're right about the direction, but we shouldn't bet the house on it.