Iran Strike Rattles Markets, But Gold Won't Play Along

Bearish stocks and gold, neutral on oil and bitcoin

The most telling signal today wasn't what moved — it was what didn't. Gold should have surged on news of U.S. strikes against Iran. Instead it fell nearly 3.5%. When a crisis can't rescue an asset that's already down 17% from its peak, that tells you the buyers are exhausted. Meanwhile, news coverage nearly vanished today — only 19 articles versus over a thousand two days ago — which means the full weight of the Iran story hasn't even hit markets yet.

Bearish gold, stocks, and bitcoin; bullish on yields

Gold is now down 22% from its March high and just hit its lowest price in three months. The short-term trend is falling faster than the longer-term one, which is a classic sign of acceleration, not stabilization. Bitcoin tells a similar story — down about 16% over two months and drifting near its recent lows, with no catalyst in sight to reverse it. The one clean trend in this market is interest rates, which have been grinding higher for months and kept rising today even as stocks sold off.

Bearish equities and gold; bullish yields; neutral oil

Stocks are facing three headwinds at once: interest rates near their highest level in three months, a geopolitical shock that markets aren't treating as contained, and a short-term trend that was already rolling over before today. What makes this environment unusual is that gold isn't cushioning the blow — it's falling alongside stocks, which removes the usual safety valve. Oil is the wild card; the Iran situation could push it sharply higher overnight, but demand forecasts were just cut today, so the direction is genuinely unclear.

Cautious across the board; trimmed sizes on correlated bets

My job today was to pump the brakes on overconfidence. The analysts are all pointing the same direction on gold, stocks, and yields — but when everything in your portfolio moves together, a single surprise can hurt you badly. Gold and stocks are currently moving in near-lockstep, so I cut the gold position size significantly to avoid doubling down on the same bet. I also flagged that our recent track record on gold calls has been poor, which is a reason for humility even when the story sounds compelling.