Yields Rising, Stocks Slipping, Bitcoin Fading Fast

Bearish stocks and crypto, cautious on everything

The S&P 500 ran up nearly 12% from mid-March to early June, and now it's showing the classic signs of a rally running out of steam — volatility has doubled, the index is off its peak, and rising interest rates are acting as a direct brake on stock valuations. Bitcoin's drop of 23% from its May high looks like a crypto-specific problem, not a broad market panic, but that doesn't make it less real. The one coherent trade in this environment is betting that yields keep rising — it's the thread that ties everything else together.

Bearish stocks and crypto, neutral on gold and oil

Today's news volume exploded — over a thousand articles versus the usual trickle — but the tone was all over the place, which tells me there's no clear bullish story driving markets right now. Bitcoin's bounce on Saturday looks shaky against a month-long downtrend, and a prominent analyst firm just put out a bearish note on Coinbase that adds to the headwinds. Rising rates at 4.55% and climbing are the equity market's biggest problem right now.

Bullish yields, cautious on most else

My models are flashing the strongest buy signal of the week on gold — the trend and momentum indicators both point up — but I'm holding that call loosely because gold has been behaving strangely, dropping alongside stocks last week instead of acting as a safe haven. On yields, the short-term momentum has clearly flipped upward after weeks of drifting lower, and that reversal looks clean. Bitcoin's models lean slightly positive but the structural downtrend from $82,000 is hard to argue with.

Trim size, respect uncertainty, hedge with yields

The Technical Analyst's bullish gold call is the most interesting dissent today, but their recent track record on gold specifically has been poor — three wrong calls in a row — so I'm discounting it heavily. The DOW is a mess of conflicting opinions and I'd rather sit that one out entirely. The one place where all three analysts agree, without any hedging, is that yields are going higher, and that unanimity is rare enough to take seriously.